Anticipating the future

By Francis Goodburn, headteacher - Aston University Maths School

"Weather forecasting and economics are the only professions where you can predict the future incorrectly all the time and still keep your job"

Anticipating the future

Why is it important to look ahead?

This adage, of uncertain origin, captures a poignant truth about the nature of prognostication. Yet in education, consciously or not, we are engaged in this very act of forecasting each day. Most educators would agree that their primary goal is to equip young people with the tools necessary to enjoy, contribute to, and thrive within the world they will encounter as adults. This imperative necessitates that we, when designing curricula or learning experiences, make informed bets daily about which skills and knowledge will be most relevant in the future.

Consider teaching in the year 1990, a time within the career span of some readers, while others may not have even been born. Back then, you might have heard whispers of an esoteric concept known as the "World Wide Web". Fast forward to today, and the internet is integral to nearly every aspect of modern life. This transformation underscores the critical need for forward-thinking in education. As we prepare students for the next 50 years, the focus on anticipating technological advancements like artificial intelligence becomes even more crucial. AI is poised to redefine a vast array of industries and societal norms, and our educational strategies must evolve to ensure our students are ready to navigate and shape this new landscape.

Understanding exponentials

The concept of exponential growth is crucial for understanding technological advancements. The internet exemplifies this, evolving in 30 years from a modest information-sharing network used primarily by academics and niche interest groups into a cornerstone of modern life, affecting commerce, communication, education, and entertainment. Similarly, smartphones and cloud computing have developed and proliferated at an exponential rate, transforming our daily interactions and business operations.

Humans often struggle to intuitively understand exponential growth because our minds are wired to recognise the linear patterns more commonly found in nature.

Consider this scenario and your initial reaction, without using a calculator: "If I invest £1,000 at a 10% compounding interest rate for 5 years, the total is about £1,610. What if it compounds for 50 years?" People typically underestimate the outcome, perhaps expecting a doubling or tripling of the initial amount. In reality, the result is much greater - around £117,390.

The trajectories of historic technological development teach us that technology can scale at a pace that (at least in the long term, given our tendency to think linearly) often surpasses even the most optimistic forecasts. Amara's Law, a rule of thumb for understanding public perception of technological development first proffered in the 1970s, captures this notion: we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

But by being cognisant that both the general public and experts often overestimate the progress achievable within a single year and underestimate the transformation possible over two to five decades, those designing academic curricula and personal development programmes can try to overcome this bias to short­ termism to ensure we are educating students to prepare them for that longer arc.

Indeed, this tendency to misjudge the rate of technological progression becomes even more pronounced when considering artificial intelligence. Unlike traditional technologies, higher level Al possesses the unique capability to contribute to its own development. As Al systems improve, they can be employed to design and optimise subsequent generations of themselves. This recursive self-improvement creates a cycle where Al not only advances at an exponential rate, but also accelerates the pace of its own evolution. This capability significantly complicates predictions about Al's future impact and growth, as each iteration has the potential to enhance its successor in unforeseeable ways, making the trajectory of Al advancement uniquely self-sustaining and rapid compared to other technologies.

Milestones for artificial intelligence

AGI (Artificial General Intelligence): A type of AI that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and apply intelligence across a broad range of tasks, matching or surpassing the level of a professional human being's capability.

ASI (Artificial Superintelligence): A hypothetical AI that not only mimics or understands human intelligence but also exhibits intelligence that surpasses the brightest and most gifted human minds across all fields, including scientific creativity, general wisdom, and social skills.

What are the experts saying?

Suggested timelines from the experts

In a 2024 research paper, Grace et al. published the outcomes of a December 2023 survey of 2,778 leading Al researchers who had published in top-tier academic journals to gauge their predictions on the pace of Al progress. The aggregated forecasts provided a median timeline, which means that 50% of the researchers anticipated achieving these milestones before the dates listed, while the other 50% expected them later:

• By 2028, a machine will be able to create a song indistinguishable from one produced by a popular musician. (Some would argue that this achievement has already been reached.)
• By 2030, a machine will author a fiction book that becomes a "New York Times bestseller".
• By 2047, machines will be capable of performing every task better and more cost-effectively than human workers.

What is particularly striking about the 2047 prediction for AGI is the rapid adjustment in expert expectations. Just one year earlier, the median prediction from the same group was 2060. This dramatic shift, cutting 13 years off the forecasted timeline in just one year, underscores the accelerating pace of advancements in Al technology and the difficulty that even experts experience in making predictions in a field where progress occurs at an exponential rate.

Arguably, Google (through its subsidiary DeepMind) and OpenAI (partially owned by Microsoft) are the two frontrunners in Al research. As of the end of 2023, their predictions for the timeline to achieve AGI were somewhat more optimistic: Shane Legg, the head of AGI Research at DeepMind, projected that AGI has a 50% chance of being achieved by 2028. Meanwhile, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, believes that an early version of AGI will be present by 2030.

Looking ahead: society in a time of artificial general intelligence (AGI)

In a society where artificial general intelligence (AGI) is easily accessible, we can anticipate significant transformations across economic, labour, and educational sectors. Assuming a near-zero cost to access professional­ level intelligence, the automation of complex tasks in various industries including manufacturing, healthcare, transportation, and finance will lead to hugely increased productivity and reduced costs.

Concurrently, the labour market would experience substantial shifts, with certain jobs and indeed industries becoming obsolete, and new roles emerging, particularly in Al management, maintenance, and ethical oversight.

With the onset of AGI, "white-collar" jobs, traditionally perceived as secure due to their reliance on cognitive skills, are particularly vulnerable to disruption. It is in fact sectors that may be described as "blue-collar" work, which would require any intelligence to perform embodied complex motor tasks, that may be less at risk of obsolescence. Take, for example, the role of a paralegal. This profession requires a significant amount of data processing, document drafting, and legal research-all tasks that current basic Al tools can already perform efficiently and almost error-free. As Al systems can analyse vast quantities of legal texts and case files in mere seconds, the need for human paralegals could diminish drastically. In contrast, consider the role of a plumber, which involves manual dexterity, physical presence, and the ability to navigate unpredictable physical environments-capabilities that Al, in its current state, cannot replicate easily. While Al can enhance diagnostic tools or improve scheduling efficiency, the actual tasks of cutting pipes, fitting them in cramped spaces, and making judgment calls based on tactile feedback are deeply rooted in human skills that Al cannot yet mimic.

Looking further ahead: society with ASI

In a world enhanced by Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), the potential to address and solve wide-scale global challenges is immense. ASI, with capabilities surpassing the brightest human minds in every field, could revolutionise our approach to some of the most pressing issues such as climate change, disease management, and global inequality. In the realm of environmental conservation, ASI could optimise energy usage and resource allocation, develop sustainable technologies at an unprecedented rate, and manage complex environmental data to predict and mitigate impacts of climate change more effectively than ever before. Moreover, ASI could bring the Fourth Industrial Revolution (see the explainer box) into full swing, by advancing technologies requiring exponential increases in computing power, such as efficient nuclear fusion and implementable quantum computing. These advancements are critical, as they offer solutions to problems that are currently intractable, and would set the stage for unprecedented levels of technological and societal development.

Industrial revolutions over time

First Industrial Revolution (Late 18th Century - Early 19th Century)

Initiated in Britain around the late 1700s, the First Industrial Revolution was marked by the transition from hand production methods to machines through the use of steam and water. The introduction of the steam engine significantly enhanced production, transportation, and communication - ushering in mechanised manufacturing processes.

Second Industrial Revolution (Late 19th Century - Early 20th Century)

Starting in the late 19th century, the Second Industrial Revolution also known as the Technological Revolution, was characterised by mass production and technological advancements in steel production, electricity, and petroleum. The expansion of the rail and telegraph networks, the widespread adoption of electrical power, and the invention of the internal combustion engine facilitated faster and more efficient production and transportation.

Third Industrial Revolution (Late 20th Century)

Emerging in the late 20th century, the Third Industrial Revolution, or the Digital Revolution, involved the shift from mechanical and analogue electronic technology to digital electronics. The advent of personal computers, the internet, and information and communications technology transformed the way societies communicate, manage information, and conduct business.

Fourth Industrial Revolution (21st Century)

The Fourth Industrial Revolution builds on the Digital Revolution, representing new ways in which technology becomes embedded within societies and even the human body. The 4IR is marked by emerging technology breakthroughs in fields such as robotics, AI, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the Internet of Things (IoT), decentralised consensus, fifth-generation wireless technologies (5G), additive manufacturing/3D printing, and fully autonomous vehicles. It is also somewhat predicated on the use of artificial intelligence itself to devise solutions to many of the issues blocking development in these areas.

The contents of the above were generated in large part by ChatGPT

Teaching: a protected profession?

As we delve into the future implications of the rise of Al, one pressing question arises: what is the future of the teaching profession itself? Will teaching be protected from the disruptive influences of technological advancements, or will it too undergo significant transformation?

Teaching, at its core, is both a facilitative and relational profession. It extends beyond the mere transmission of information; it involves shaping the intellectual and emotional development of learners, nurturing critical thinking, creativity, and values. This deeply human aspect suggests that teaching, as a profession, holds a unique position amidst the rise of automation and Al.

While certain aspects of education, such as information delivery and assessment, can be augmented by technology, it could be argued that the intrinsic human elements - such as mentorship, ethical guidance, and emotional support - are not replaceable by machines. Al and automation may take over administrative tasks, grading, and even personalised learning pathways, but the empathetic, relational, and motivational roles of a teacher would be harder to fully replicate using technology.

The future may see teachers evolving from knowledge deliverers to facilitators of learning. As access to information becomes ubiquitous and instant through digital means, the teacher's role will increasingly focus on guiding students in critical assessment of information, fostering collaboration, and encouraging self-directed learning. This shift will require teachers to adapt and acquire new skills that complement technological tools, focusing more on soft skills and emotional intelligence in their teaching methods, while taking advantage of the enhanced technologies at their disposition.

Despite technological advancements, the relational nature of teaching remains its most protected attribute. The connection between teacher and student is foundational to effective learning-a complex interplay of trust, respect, and inspiration that drives educational outcomes. This relational aspect ensures that teaching will continue to be a fundamentally human enterprise, central to personal and societal development.

Engaging with the future today

Key messages to prepare students

Educating students about upcoming societal changes can invoke feelings of trepidation and worry. By emphasising key positive messages, teachers can guide students to navigate the uncertainties of the future with confidence and a proactive mindset. This approach prepares them not only to meet challenges head-on but also to thrive in a transforming world.

Here are five key messages to help prepare students for the changes ahead:

1. Understanding historical context: Remind students that each technological revolution throughout history, while initially disruptive, eventually led to new forms of employment and ways of living. The transition from agricultural to industrial societies, for instance, not only changed the nature of work but also created opportunities that previously did not exist. Emphasising this historical perspective can alleviate fears about the future, showing that society adapts and creates new roles and industries in response to technological change.
2. Embracing lifelong learning: Highlight the importance of lifelong learning as a way to stay adaptable and relevant in a rapidly changing world. Encourage students to view change as an opportunity for growth and to continuously develop new skills and interests. This mindset will prepare them to pivot when needed and seize new opportunities that arise with technological advancements.
3. Redefining success, valuing non-economic contributions: Challenge the traditional metrics of success and productivity. In a future where Al and automation handle more routine tasks, human roles may shift towards creativity, empathy, and interpersonal skills. Encourage students to consider success not just in terms of career advancement and income, but also in their ability to contribute meaningfully to society and lead fulfilling lives. Discuss the importance of non-economic activities, drawing parallels to the lifestyles of semi-retired individuals who contribute significantly to society through volunteer work, hobbies, and supporting family and friends.
4. Encouraging flexibility and resilience: Prepare students for a future that requires flexibility and resilience. The ability to adapt to new roles, learn from different experiences, and recover from setbacks will be more valuable than ever. Resilience training can be incorporated into the curriculum to help students develop these crucial skills.
5. Exploring ethical implications: Equip students with the skills to explore the ethical implications of technology. Understanding the potential impacts of Al, biotechnology, and other advancements will be crucial. Engaging students in discussions about ethics prepares them to make thoughtful decisions about technology use and advocate for policies that protect societal well-being.

Further reading and research

Given the swift evolution of technology and society, it is critical to remain well-informed using a diverse array of current and dynamic resources. Although books provide comprehensive insights, they may not always reflect the latest advancements due to the rapid pace of technological change. Furthermore, students often show a greater inclination towards engaging with multimedia resources such as videos and podcasts over traditional books and academic papers. Below are some suggestions of YouTube channels and podcasts with content related specifically to the future of Al which may be of interest to students and college staff alike:

YouTube Channels

• David Shapiro: This channel delves into a wide range of topics from the philosophical implications of Al to ethical considerations in technology use.

• Dwarkesh Patel: Patel interviews innovators and thought-leaders in Al, with an engaging long-form, well-researched, one-on-one discussion format.

• Two Minute Papers: This channel provides concise and insightful summaries of the latest research papers in Al.

Podcasts

• Al in Business: Providing insight into the current and future strategic implementation of Al in various sectors, this podcast discusses the implications of Al technologies in businesses.

• The Al Podcast by NVIDIA: This podcast explores a wide array of Al applications, from astrophysics to art, through interviews with innovators and experts in the field.

• In Machines We Trust: Produced by MIT Technology Review, this podcast delves into the broader implications of Al technologies and their integration into society. It provides a critical look at how Al is reshaping industries and what that might mean for the future, including ethical considerations and potential regulations.